ATLFalcons
4-2
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
035
NOSaints
6-0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
8
0
7
6
21
Saints
7
15
0
7
29
Spread
+11
Total
OVER
56
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
442
437
Total Plays
69
70
Yards / Play
6.4
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.01
Passing Yards
281
291
Comp/Att
19/42(45%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.23
Rushing Yards
161
146
Rush Attempts
24
35
Yards / Rush
6.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-13.99
-17.83
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-8
-17
Sack EPA
-2.55
-9.57
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
25
65
Penalty EPA
-3.30
-1.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model79.8%
Spread Pick
Falcons+11.0
Expected Value
+10.1%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+183
Home nfelo
1,681
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.3
Away QB Adjustment
+7.4
Market Regression
-4.7
Final Difference
239.1
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
18
Yards / Game
16
28
Passing Yards / Game
29
21
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22
EPA
EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
11
7
EPA / Rush
13
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
15
4th Down Efficiency
3
9
RZ Efficiency
13
3
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
16
22
Rushing Yards / Game
10
9
EPA
EPA / Play
2
14
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
7
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
24
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
28
12
Turnover EPA / Game
30
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
32
4th Down Efficiency
25
13
RZ Efficiency
4
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-3-4
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
8-1-1
ATS
4-2-4
O/U