ATLFalcons
5-8
18
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
021
NOSaints
4-9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
3
7
8
18
Saints
14
0
7
0
21
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
348
Total Plays
70
55
Yards / Play
4.6
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.03
Passing Yards
89
214
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
13/19(68%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
11.3
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.62
Rushing Yards
233
134
Rush Attempts
40
34
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
56%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-2.02
-5.29
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-8
-17
Sack EPA
-3.56
-4.19
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
30
46
Penalty EPA
-3.86
-4.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
-5.0
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
-31.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+33.7
Home QB Adjustment
-12.7
Away QB Adjustment
-46.5
Market Regression
+42.2
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-46.5
No recent game data available
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-12.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
9
Yards / Game
24
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24
EPA
EPA / Play
14
9
EPA / Pass
19
6
EPA / Rush
8
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
20
25
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
18
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23
EPA
EPA / Play
24
28
EPA / Pass
13
31
EPA / Rush
29
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
22
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
30
5
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U