ATLFalcons
9-5
16
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
045
NOSaints
11-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
10
0
3
3
16
Saints
7
14
10
8
39
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
469
463
Total Plays
75
63
Yards / Play
6.3
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.35
Passing Yards
--
299
Comp/Att
40/61(66%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.36
Rushing Yards
35
164
Rush Attempts
14
23
Yards / Rush
2.5
7.1
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
26
Passing 1st downs
21
17
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
77%
3rd Down Conversions
8
10
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.03
-8.93
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.56
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
57
46
Penalty EPA
-8.02
-1.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+164
Home nfelo
1,683
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+24.0
Home QB Adjustment
+41.6
Away QB Adjustment
+17.6
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+41.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
18
Yards / Game
12
26
Passing Yards / Game
24
18
Rushing Yards / Game
18
11
EPA
EPA / Play
13
19
EPA / Pass
9
15
EPA / Rush
23
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
8
27
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
6
4th Down Efficiency
30
4
RZ Efficiency
13
30
Saints Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
17
Yards / Game
1
13
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
7
7
EPA
EPA / Play
3
14
EPA / Pass
2
16
EPA / Rush
5
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
16
11
Fumbles / Game
12
17
Turnover EPA / Game
17
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
30
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
6
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U