ATLFalcons
1-2
30
TBD
Lumen Field
58°F
028
SEASeahawks
1-2
TBD
Lumen Field
58°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
7
17
3
3
30
Seahawks
0
7
14
7
28
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
412
372
Total Plays
78
53
Yards / Play
5.3
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.23
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.35
+0.28
Rushing Yards
121
53
Rush Attempts
36
15
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
56%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.16
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
40
Penalty EPA
-3.72
+0.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model66.8%
Spread Pick
Seahawks+6.0
Expected Value
+0.2%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-82
Home nfelo
1,397
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.6
Home QB Adjustment
-11.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.3
Market Regression
-12.3
Final Difference
-121.4
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.3
T. Jackson
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
12
9
Passing Yards / Game
24
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
15
EPA
EPA / Play
13
5
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
23
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
8
3
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
30
30
RZ Efficiency
13
12
Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
23
8
Rushing Yards / Game
20
7
EPA
EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
20
16
EPA / Rush
27
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
28
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
17
17
Turnover EPA / Game
22
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
27
RZ Efficiency
21
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Seahawks
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U