ATLFalcons
5-4
34
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
6 mph
31
SEASeahawks
6-3
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
14
4
7
3
28
Seahawks
7
10
6
8
31
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
279
362
Total Plays
58
70
Yards / Play
4.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.05
Passing Yards
190
226
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.08
Rushing Yards
89
136
Rush Attempts
30
23
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
26
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
64%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.03
-14.62
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-30
Sack EPA
-1.52
-10.26
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
69
106
Penalty EPA
-6.49
-13.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model44.6%
Spread Pick
Seahawks+1.0
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,607
Home Field
+86.0
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.1
Net QB Adjustment
+25.4
Home QB Adjustment
+19.4
Away QB Adjustment
-6.0
Market Regression
-27.9
Final Difference
37.4
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
9
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20
EPA
EPA / Play
7
8
EPA / Pass
7
6
EPA / Rush
20
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
8
14
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
27
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
24
15
RZ Efficiency
26
6
Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
6
Yards / Game
15
8
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
23
9
EPA
EPA / Play
19
21
EPA / Pass
13
18
EPA / Rush
24
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
26
Interceptions / Game
13
30
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
25
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
17
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
12
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U