ATLFalcons
11-2
34
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
2 mph
18
SEASeahawks
6-7
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
17
11
0
28
Seahawks
7
3
0
8
18
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
266
236
Total Plays
73
57
Yards / Play
3.6
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.24
Passing Yards
168
145
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.57
Rushing Yards
98
91
Rush Attempts
37
21
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
12
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.93
-15.93
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-11
Sack EPA
+0.58
-7.61
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
35
76
Penalty EPA
-4.95
-6.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-144
Home nfelo
1,370
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.6
Market Regression
+39.6
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
19
30
Passing Yards / Game
26
24
Rushing Yards / Game
13
21
EPA
EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
7
29
EPA / Rush
16
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
17
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
7
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
6
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
29
Rushing Yards / Game
31
10
EPA
EPA / Play
22
10
EPA / Pass
24
16
EPA / Rush
24
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
20
4
Fumbles / Game
12
27
Turnover EPA / Game
12
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
29
21
RZ Efficiency
26
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Seahawks
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U