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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ seahawks week 15, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
11-2
34
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
2 mph
18
SEASeahawks
6-7
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
17
11
0
28
Seahawks
7
3
0
8
18

Spread

ATL logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
266
236
Total Plays
73
57
Yards / Play
3.6
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.24
Passing Yards
168
145
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.57
Rushing Yards
98
91
Rush Attempts
37
21
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.42
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
12
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.93
-15.93
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-11
Sack EPA
+0.58
-7.61
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
35
76
Penalty EPA
-4.95
-6.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-148
Home nfelo
1,369
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.6
Market Regression
+39.6
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
Value
Ptile
10/03
-2.5
31
10/10
-1.7
39
10/17
-0.8
44
10/24
8.6
94
11/07
4.4
79
11/11
7.6
92
11/21
6.8
90
11/28
4.4
78
12/05
-2.1
35
12/12
-2.1
35
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Value
Ptile
09/26
-2.2
35
10/03
-6.8
10
10/17
2.8
68
10/24
-4.6
19
10/31
-13.8
1
11/14
4.4
79
11/21
10.6
98
11/28
-2.2
34
12/05
-5.3
16
12/12
-2.1
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Falcons logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
19
30
Passing Yards / Game
26
24
Rushing Yards / Game
13
21

EPA

EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
7
29
EPA / Rush
16
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
17
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
7
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense
Seahawks logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
22
6
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
29
Rushing Yards / Game
31
10

EPA

EPA / Play
22
10
EPA / Pass
24
16
EPA / Rush
24
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
20
4
Fumbles / Game
12
27
Turnover EPA / Game
12
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
29
21
RZ Efficiency
26
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
2
W
L
U
10/10
10
W
W
U
10/17
-14
L
L
O
10/24
7
W
W
O
11/07
6
W
L
O
11/11
5
W
W
O
11/21
17
W
W
O
11/28
3
W
W
U
12/05
4
W
W
O
12/12
21
W
W
P
SEA logo

Seahawks

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-17
L
L
U
10/17
3
W
W
O
10/24
12
W
W
U
10/31
-30
L
L
U
11/07
-34
L
L
O
11/14
18
W
W
O
11/21
-15
L
L
O
11/28
-18
L
L
O
12/05
17
W
W
O
12/12
-19
L
L
O