ATLFalcons
-
9
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
65°F
9 mph
15
PITSteelers
-
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
65°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Falcons
0
3
3
3
0
9
Steelers
3
0
3
3
6
15
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
354
Total Plays
71
60
Yards / Play
4.2
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.03
Passing Yards
237
211
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.01
Rushing Yards
58
143
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
38%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.61
-3.87
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-25
Sack EPA
-3.12
-4.09
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-2.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model43.4%
Spread Pick
Steelers+1.0
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+95
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.8
Home QB Adjustment
-23.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.7
Market Regression
+0.0
Final Difference
45.8
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
D. Dixon
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-23.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
2
Yards / Game
19
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1
EPA
EPA / Play
7
2
EPA / Pass
7
4
EPA / Rush
16
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
8
Interceptions / Game
4
10
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
25
RZ Efficiency
6
4
Steelers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
6
Yards / Game
14
19
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
11
10
EPA
EPA / Play
13
10
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
10
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
28
Interceptions / Game
6
4
Fumbles / Game
18
27
Turnover EPA / Game
20
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
24
4th Down Efficiency
27
21
RZ Efficiency
15
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U