ATLFalcons
1-3
17
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
83°F
5 mph
41
PITSteelers
1-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
83°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
10
0
7
17
Steelers
13
0
14
8
35
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
57
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
381
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
4.6
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.28
Passing Yards
262
--
Comp/Att
31/45(69%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.36
Rushing Yards
62
131
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
43%
75%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.09
-4.65
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-43
--
Sack EPA
-12.71
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
75
58
Penalty EPA
-9.75
-6.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+76.5
Base HFA
+56.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.1
Away QB Adjustment
+20.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
16
Yards / Game
6
6
Passing Yards / Game
3
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
5
EPA
EPA / Play
5
20
EPA / Pass
6
18
EPA / Rush
24
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
11
16
Steelers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
25
Yards / Game
5
28
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
31
25
EPA
EPA / Play
8
30
EPA / Pass
4
23
EPA / Rush
15
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
18
31
Turnover EPA / Game
7
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
31
4th Down Efficiency
6
28
RZ Efficiency
2
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
5-4-1
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U