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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ steelers week 5, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
1-3
17
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
83°F
5 mph
41
PITSteelers
1-2
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
83°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
0
10
0
7
17
Steelers
13
0
14
8
35

Spread

PIT logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
57

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
324
381
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
4.6
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.28
Passing Yards
262
--
Comp/Att
31/45(69%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.36
Rushing Yards
62
131
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
43%
75%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.09
-4.65
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-43
--
Sack EPA
-12.71
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
75
58
Penalty EPA
-9.75
-6.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+77.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.1
Away QB Adjustment
+20.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
Value
Ptile
12/07
-6.3
15
12/18
0.5
55
12/24
-3.0
31
12/31
4.1
81
01/06
-0.3
49
01/13
-1.5
42
09/06
-7.6
9
09/16
10.3
96
09/23
10.2
96
09/30
8.6
93
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Value
Ptile
11/26
8.2
94
12/04
2.4
69
12/10
11.0
99
12/17
2.8
72
12/25
3.1
75
01/14
13.8
100
09/09
-6.3
12
09/16
12.9
99
09/24
4.3
76
09/30
-0.1
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Steelers Defense
Falcons logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
16
Yards / Game
6
6
Passing Yards / Game
3
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
5

EPA

EPA / Play
5
20
EPA / Pass
6
18
EPA / Rush
24
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
11
16
Steelers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Steelers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
5
25
Yards / Game
5
28
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
31
25

EPA

EPA / Play
8
30
EPA / Pass
4
23
EPA / Rush
15
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
18
31
Turnover EPA / Game
7
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
31
4th Down Efficiency
6
28
RZ Efficiency
2
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
3
W
W
U
12/18
3
W
L
U
12/24
-10
L
L
U
12/31
12
W
W
U
01/06
13
W
W
U
01/13
-5
L
L
U
09/06
-6
L
L
U
09/16
7
W
W
O
09/23
-6
L
L
O
09/30
-1
L
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

5-4-1
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
3
W
L
O
12/10
1
W
L
O
12/17
-3
L
L
U
12/25
28
W
W
U
12/31
4
W
L
O
01/14
-3
L
L
O
09/09
0
T
L
O
09/16
-5
L
L
O
09/24
3
W
W
O
09/30
-12
L
L
U