ATLFalcons
0-1
22
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
06
MINVikings
1-0
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
6
3
3
10
22
Vikings
0
6
0
0
6
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
198
Total Plays
63
46
Yards / Play
5.2
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.52
Passing Yards
108
120
Comp/Att
13/21(62%)
11/21(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.45
-0.86
Rushing Yards
218
78
Rush Attempts
39
19
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
10
Passing 1st downs
5
7
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
20%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-2.63
-14.35
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-27
-38
Sack EPA
-5.60
-13.00
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-6.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+45.3
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-3.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.3
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
-35.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Penix
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
J. McCarthy
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
7
7
Passing Yards / Game
20
8
Rushing Yards / Game
7
24
EPA
EPA / Play
22
2
EPA / Pass
22
1
EPA / Rush
19
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
17
17
Fumbles / Game
29
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
1
RZ Efficiency
25
6
Vikings Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
23
2
Passing Yards / Game
15
6
Rushing Yards / Game
20
15
EPA
EPA / Play
26
16
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
16
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
28
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
16
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Vikings
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U