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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. falcons @ vikings week 2, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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ATL logo
ATLFalcons
0-1
22
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
6
MINVikings
1-0
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
6
3
3
10
22
Vikings
0
6
0
0
6

Spread

ATL logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Falcons logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
326
198
Total Plays
63
46
Yards / Play
5.2
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.52
Passing Yards
108
120
Comp/Att
13/21(62%)
11/21(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.45
-0.86
Rushing Yards
218
78
Rush Attempts
39
19
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Falcons logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
19
10
Passing 1st downs
5
7
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
20%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Falcons logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-2.63
-14.35
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-27
-38
Sack EPA
-5.60
-13.00
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-6.49

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+45.2
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-3.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.3
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
-34.7
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Penix headshot

M. Penix

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Value
Ptile
12/22
-3.2
27
12/29
-4.1
22
01/05
2.5
66
09/07
4.6
81
J. McCarthy headshot

J. McCarthy

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Value
Ptile
09/08
-0.3
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Falcons Offense vs Vikings Defense
Falcons logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
17
9
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22

EPA

EPA / Play
24
4
EPA / Pass
19
3
EPA / Rush
15
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
3
24
Fumbles / Game
28
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
5
4th Down Efficiency
24
25
RZ Efficiency
9
1
Vikings Offense vs Falcons Defense
Vikings logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
26
20
Yards / Game
29
14
Passing Yards / Game
30
25
Rushing Yards / Game
25
26

EPA

EPA / Play
28
20
EPA / Pass
31
13
EPA / Rush
17
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
30
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
20
4th Down Efficiency
11
17
RZ Efficiency
13
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
6
W
W
U
11/10
-3
L
L
U
11/17
-32
L
L
U
12/01
-4
L
L
U
12/08
-21
L
L
O
12/16
6
W
L
U
12/22
27
W
W
U
12/29
-6
L
L
O
01/05
-6
L
L
O
09/07
-3
L
L
U
MIN logo

Vikings

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
10
W
W
U
11/24
3
W
P
O
12/01
1
W
L
U
12/08
21
W
W
O
12/16
18
W
W
U
12/22
3
W
W
O
12/29
2
W
W
O
01/05
-22
L
L
U
01/13
-18
L
L
U
09/08
3
W
W
O