ATLFalcons
0-1
22
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
06
MINVikings
1-0
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Falcons
6
3
3
10
22
Vikings
0
6
0
0
6
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
198
Total Plays
63
46
Yards / Play
5.2
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.52
Passing Yards
108
120
Comp/Att
13/21(62%)
11/21(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.45
-0.86
Rushing Yards
218
78
Rush Attempts
39
19
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
10
Passing 1st downs
5
7
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
20%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-2.63
-14.35
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-27
-38
Sack EPA
-5.60
-13.00
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-6.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+45.3
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-3.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.3
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
-35.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Penix
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
J. McCarthy
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Falcons Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
16
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
21
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22
EPA
EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
23
9
EPA / Rush
16
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
29
RZ Efficiency
12
4
Vikings Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
18
18
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27
EPA
EPA / Play
28
22
EPA / Pass
30
16
EPA / Rush
24
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
31
11
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
3
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
16
4th Down Efficiency
14
21
RZ Efficiency
16
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Falcons
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Vikings
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U