NYGGiants
1-1
12
TBD
Levi's Stadium
77°F
13 mph
30
SF49ers
2-0
TBD
Levi's Stadium
77°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
3
6
0
12
49ers
3
14
3
10
30
Spread
-10.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
150
441
Total Plays
47
78
Yards / Play
3.2
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.18
Passing Yards
121
300
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.44
Rushing Yards
29
141
Rush Attempts
11
39
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
26
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
25%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.89
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-10
Sack EPA
-3.83
-2.80
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
37
71
Penalty EPA
-7.67
-7.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+272
Home nfelo
1,662
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+81.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+23.1
Net QB Adjustment
+1.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
+12.8
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
4
Yards / Game
29
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
17
Rushing Yards / Game
16
5
EPA
EPA / Play
30
18
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
29
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
27
Interceptions / Game
15
2
Fumbles / Game
6
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
27
4th Down Efficiency
20
14
RZ Efficiency
31
11
49ers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
26
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29
EPA
EPA / Play
1
17
EPA / Pass
1
12
EPA / Rush
5
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
1
Interceptions / Game
12
3
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
24
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
13
20
RZ Efficiency
1
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
49ers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U