NYGGiants
6-2
20
TBD
Candlestick Park
58°F
10 mph
27
SF49ers
7-1
TBD
Candlestick Park
58°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
3
7
7
20
49ers
3
6
3
15
27
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
395
307
Total Plays
70
53
Yards / Play
5.6
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.17
Passing Yards
302
230
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.11
Rushing Yards
93
77
Rush Attempts
29
20
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.64
-3.29
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-14
Sack EPA
-2.35
-3.02
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
45
35
Penalty EPA
-5.05
-3.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+154
Home nfelo
1,587
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-5.6
Home QB Adjustment
+8.7
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
+4.1
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
8
7
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
26
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
7
Interceptions / Game
12
2
Fumbles / Game
16
1
Turnover EPA / Game
29
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
9
4
49ers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
20
Yards / Game
24
22
Passing Yards / Game
29
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
18
EPA
EPA / Play
12
24
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
17
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
23
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
8
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
20
RZ Efficiency
30
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
8-2
SU
8-1-1
ATS
6-4
O/U