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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ 49ers week 10, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
1-7
21
TBD
Levi's Stadium
68°F
5 mph
31
SF49ers
0-9
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
68°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
6
7
0
8
21
49ers
3
14
0
14
31

Spread

SF logo
+3

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
376
474
Total Plays
64
58
Yards / Play
5.9
8.2
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.23
Passing Yards
260
--
Comp/Att
28/37(76%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.59
Rushing Yards
116
186
Rush Attempts
24
33
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Giants logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.76
-10.01
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-7.11
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
44
Penalty EPA
-4.87
-5.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model52.0%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,370
Away nfelo
1,401
Home Field
+97.0
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+20.4
Net QB Adjustment
-35.8
Home QB Adjustment
-41.1
Away QB Adjustment
-5.3
Market Regression
-29.3
Final Difference
-14.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
Value
Ptile
01/01
-2.7
28
01/08
-2.2
33
09/10
-2.9
33
09/18
-4.7
21
09/24
7.8
93
10/01
7.7
93
10/08
-4.5
22
10/15
-4.0
25
10/22
-3.5
27
11/05
-1.6
41
C. Beathard headshot

C. Beathard

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-41.1
Value
Ptile
10/22
-2.3
37
10/29
-8.6
6
11/05
-5.8
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs 49ers Defense
Giants logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
25
Yards / Game
22
25
Passing Yards / Game
32
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22

EPA

EPA / Play
32
25
EPA / Pass
27
26
EPA / Rush
27
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
10
Interceptions / Game
20
25
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
32
RZ Efficiency
24
26
49ers Offense vs Giants Defense
49ers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
19
27
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
11
7
Rushing Yards / Game
20
26

EPA

EPA / Play
16
18
EPA / Pass
17
21
EPA / Rush
9
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
19
Interceptions / Game
23
15
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
19
4
RZ Efficiency
28
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
9
W
W
U
01/08
-25
L
L
O
09/10
-16
L
L
U
09/18
-14
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
-2
L
W
O
10/08
-5
L
L
O
10/15
13
W
W
U
10/22
-17
L
L
U
11/05
-34
L
L
O
SF logo

49ers

0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-2
L
W
O
09/10
-20
L
L
U
09/17
-3
L
W
U
09/21
-2
L
W
O
10/01
-3
L
W
U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
10/15
-2
L
W
O
10/22
-30
L
L
O
10/29
-23
L
L
U
11/05
-10
L
L
U