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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ bears week 2, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NYG logo
NYGGiants
0-1
13
TBD
Soldier Field
66°F
12 mph
17
CHIBears
1-0
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
66°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
0
3
10
13
Bears
10
7
0
0
17

Spread

NYG logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
295
304
Total Plays
62
64
Yards / Play
4.8
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.08
Passing Yards
220
169
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.06
Rushing Yards
75
135
Rush Attempts
18
32
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
23%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.13
-7.96
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-21
-21
Sack EPA
-9.17
-3.84
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
10
48
Penalty EPA
-3.53
-6.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,415
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
-5.5
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
10/10
-6.9
12
10/20
-8.4
7
10/27
6.1
87
11/04
-2.4
35
11/10
1.4
64
11/24
1.8
66
12/01
-5.8
16
12/22
10.5
97
12/29
-1.7
40
09/14
0.3
48
M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Value
Ptile
11/03
-7.5
10
11/10
-2.8
32
11/17
-5.3
18
11/24
-1.7
40
11/28
5.4
85
12/05
8.0
93
12/15
-2.8
32
12/22
-5.1
19
12/29
-2.4
35
09/13
3.0
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Bears Defense
Giants logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
31
13
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
26
22
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14

EPA

EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
27
20
EPA / Rush
19
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
17
Interceptions / Game
11
28
Fumbles / Game
30
21
Turnover EPA / Game
12
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
31
6
Bears Offense vs Giants Defense
Bears logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
28
12
Passing Yards / Game
14
26
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11

EPA

EPA / Play
22
15
EPA / Pass
24
17
EPA / Rush
20
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
9
13
Turnover EPA / Game
20
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
14
22
RZ Efficiency
21
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
-5
L
W
O
11/04
-19
L
L
O
11/10
-7
L
L
O
11/24
-5
L
W
U
12/01
-18
L
L
O
12/09
-6
L
W
U
12/15
16
W
W
O
12/22
6
W
W
O
12/29
-17
L
L
O
09/14
-10
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
-8
L
L
U
11/10
7
W
W
U
11/17
-10
L
L
U
11/24
5
W
L
U
11/28
4
W
L
O
12/05
7
W
W
O
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/22
-23
L
L
U
12/29
2
W
L
O
09/13
4
W
W
O