NYGGiants
0-1
13
TBD
Soldier Field
66°F
12 mph
17
CHIBears
1-0
TBD
Soldier Field
66°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
0
3
10
13
Bears
10
7
0
0
17
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
304
Total Plays
62
64
Yards / Play
4.8
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.08
Passing Yards
220
169
Comp/Att
25/40(63%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.06
Rushing Yards
75
135
Rush Attempts
18
32
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
23%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.13
-7.96
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-21
-21
Sack EPA
-9.17
-3.84
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
10
48
Penalty EPA
-3.53
-6.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,415
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
-5.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
13
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
26
22
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14
EPA
EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
27
20
EPA / Rush
19
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
17
Interceptions / Game
11
28
Fumbles / Game
30
21
Turnover EPA / Game
12
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
31
6
Bears Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
28
12
Passing Yards / Game
14
26
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11
EPA
EPA / Play
22
15
EPA / Pass
24
17
EPA / Rush
20
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
9
13
Turnover EPA / Game
20
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
14
22
RZ Efficiency
21
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U