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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ bears week 10, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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NYG logo
NYGGiants
2-7
20
TBD
Soldier Field
33°F
10 mph
24
CHIBears
5-3
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
33°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
10
7
3
20
Bears
7
0
3
14
24

Spread

NYG logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
431
391
Total Plays
70
64
Yards / Play
6.2
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.04
Passing Yards
262
--
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.17
Rushing Yards
169
171
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
5.6
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
36%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.48
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-25
--
Sack EPA
-6.91
--
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
69
25
Penalty EPA
-5.61
-3.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model68.6%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears-4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.9%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+167
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+49.9
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
-7.6
Net QB Adjustment
+31.6
Home QB Adjustment
+12.4
Away QB Adjustment
-19.2
Market Regression
+5.5
Final Difference
135.6
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

J. Dart headshot

J. Dart

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-19.2
Value
Ptile
09/28
-1.6
38
10/05
1.2
60
10/09
4.4
80
10/19
0.7
56
10/26
-2.4
34
11/02
6.4
90
C. Williams headshot

C. Williams

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Value
Ptile
12/26
-10.6
1
01/05
1.9
62
09/08
4.5
80
09/14
-2.8
30
09/21
8.3
95
09/28
-3.2
28
10/13
-0.2
49
10/19
-6.3
11
10/26
0.6
56
11/02
5.8
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Bears Defense
Giants logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
21
22
Yards / Game
15
28
Passing Yards / Game
6
11
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28

EPA

EPA / Play
20
15
EPA / Pass
23
15
EPA / Rush
6
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
11
1
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
23
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
9
RZ Efficiency
28
16
Bears Offense vs Giants Defense
Bears logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
10
26
Yards / Game
3
29
Passing Yards / Game
26
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
30

EPA

EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
10
18
EPA / Rush
4
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
10
Interceptions / Game
1
24
Fumbles / Game
3
24
Turnover EPA / Game
32
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
16
4th Down Efficiency
21
30
RZ Efficiency
19
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
-7
L
L
U
09/07
-15
L
L
U
09/14
-3
L
W
O
09/21
-13
L
L
U
09/28
3
W
W
U
10/05
-12
L
L
U
10/09
17
W
W
O
10/19
-1
L
W
O
10/26
-18
L
L
O
11/02
-10
L
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-3
L
W
U
01/05
2
W
W
O
09/08
-3
L
L
O
09/14
-31
L
L
O
09/21
17
W
W
U
09/28
1
W
W
O
10/13
1
W
W
U
10/19
12
W
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
O
11/02
5
W
W
O