NYGGiants
2-8
14
TBD
Soldier Field
48°F
12 mph
19
CHIBears
4-6
TBD
Soldier Field
48°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
7
0
7
14
Bears
0
3
16
0
19
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
243
335
Total Plays
58
69
Yards / Play
4.2
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.18
Passing Yards
134
270
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.13
Rushing Yards
109
65
Rush Attempts
21
26
Yards / Rush
5.2
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
8%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.82
-7.96
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-16
-8
Sack EPA
-6.82
-2.71
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
35
40
Penalty EPA
-5.10
-4.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,374
Home Field
+19.3
Base HFA
+49.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-38.3
Surface Adj
+17.2
Time Adj
-8.8
Net QB Adjustment
-5.3
Home QB Adjustment
-18.5
Away QB Adjustment
-13.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.2
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-18.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
4
Yards / Game
23
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
11
Rushing Yards / Game
19
9
EPA
EPA / Play
26
6
EPA / Pass
27
11
EPA / Rush
11
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
12
Interceptions / Game
25
25
Fumbles / Game
32
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
6
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
17
11
Bears Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
30
Yards / Game
29
26
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
20
EPA
EPA / Play
28
24
EPA / Pass
24
28
EPA / Rush
29
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
13
Interceptions / Game
16
25
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
29
24
RZ Efficiency
24
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U