nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ bills week 6, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NYG logo
NYGGiants
1-4
9
TBD
New Era Field
46°F
7 mph
14
BUFBills
3-2
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
46°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
3
0
3
9
Bills
0
0
0
14
14

Spread

NYG logo
+14.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
317
297
Total Plays
73
59
Yards / Play
4.3
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.11
Passing Yards
185
--
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.13
Rushing Yards
132
128
Rush Attempts
34
29
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
53%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
10
6
3rd Down Attempts
19
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.54
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-4.45
--
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
65
51
Penalty EPA
-8.28
-7.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5

Win Probability

Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+335
Home nfelo
1,652
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+43.1
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+63.5
Home QB Adjustment
+16.4
Away QB Adjustment
-47.0
Market Regression
+55.1
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5

Quarterbacks

T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-47.0
Value
Ptile
09/09
-5.6
15
09/16
-0.4
43
09/20
-9.9
3
09/13
-5.0
15
09/12
5.1
84
09/19
1.6
65
11/07
-12.3
1
11/21
0.5
56
11/28
-5.9
15
12/05
-10.5
3
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Value
Ptile
12/17
10.1
97
12/24
-0.2
51
01/08
2.4
72
01/15
-3.5
25
01/22
1.5
64
09/11
-5.1
19
09/17
6.8
90
09/24
5.0
81
10/01
11.5
98
10/08
7.8
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Bills Defense
Giants logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
13
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15

EPA

EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
29
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
21
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
18
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
31
18
Bills Offense vs Giants Defense
Bills logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
6
26
Yards / Game
5
27
Passing Yards / Game
19
5
Rushing Yards / Game
5
29

EPA

EPA / Play
3
17
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
1
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
20
RZ Efficiency
4
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-3
L
W
O
01/01
28
W
W
O
01/08
-6
L
W
U
01/15
7
W
W
O
01/21
-31
L
L
U
09/10
-40
L
L
U
09/17
3
W
L
O
09/21
-18
L
L
U
10/02
-21
L
L
U
10/08
-15
L
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
3
W
L
O
12/24
22
W
W
O
01/08
12
W
W
O
01/15
3
W
L
O
01/22
-17
L
L
U
09/11
-6
L
L
U
09/17
28
W
W
O
09/24
34
W
W
U
10/01
28
W
W
O
10/08
-5
L
L
U