NYGGiants
1-4
9
TBD
New Era Field
46°F
7 mph
14
BUFBills
3-2
TBD
New Era Field
46°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
3
0
3
9
Bills
0
0
0
14
14
Spread
+14.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
297
Total Plays
73
59
Yards / Play
4.3
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.11
Passing Yards
185
--
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.13
Rushing Yards
132
128
Rush Attempts
34
29
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
53%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
10
6
3rd Down Attempts
19
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.54
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-4.45
--
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
65
51
Penalty EPA
-8.28
-7.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+339
Home nfelo
1,656
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+43.2
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+63.4
Home QB Adjustment
+16.4
Away QB Adjustment
-47.0
Market Regression
+55.1
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-47.0
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
13
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15
EPA
EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
29
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
21
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
18
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
31
18
Bills Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
26
Yards / Game
5
27
Passing Yards / Game
19
5
Rushing Yards / Game
5
29
EPA
EPA / Play
3
17
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
1
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
20
RZ Efficiency
4
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U