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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ buccaneers week 3, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
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NYG logo
NYGGiants
0-2
32
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
11 mph
31
TBBuccaneers
1-1
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
7
15
7
32
Buccaneers
12
16
0
3
31

Spread

NYG logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
386
499
Total Plays
61
73
Yards / Play
6.3
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.08
Passing Yards
314
355
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
9.6
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.26
Rushing Yards
72
144
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
46%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
75%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.08
-4.55
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-24
-25
Sack EPA
-13.69
-5.88
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
59
30
Penalty EPA
-5.59
-2.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+142
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,383
Home Field
+77.8
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.2
Home QB Adjustment
-11.5
Away QB Adjustment
-29.8
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-29.8
No recent game data available
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.5
Value
Ptile
10/21
1.0
53
10/28
-11.8
2
11/25
7.6
91
12/02
2.3
64
12/09
-3.3
26
12/16
-5.9
13
12/23
3.9
74
12/30
7.6
91
09/08
-9.8
5
09/12
-2.3
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Giants logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
23
15
Passing Yards / Game
16
31
Rushing Yards / Game
19
1

EPA

EPA / Play
26
11
EPA / Pass
27
7
EPA / Rush
11
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
11
Interceptions / Game
25
18
Fumbles / Game
32
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
4
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
17
5
Buccaneers Offense vs Giants Defense
Buccaneers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
4
30
Yards / Game
3
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20

EPA

EPA / Play
19
24
EPA / Pass
14
28
EPA / Rush
26
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
32
25
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
11
24
RZ Efficiency
4
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
4
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
P
O
11/25
-3
L
W
U
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
24
W
W
O
12/16
-17
L
L
U
12/23
-1
L
W
O
12/30
-1
L
L
O
09/08
-18
L
L
O
09/15
-14
L
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
5-3-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
-13
L
L
U
11/18
-3
L
P
O
11/25
18
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
U
12/09
-14
L
L
U
12/16
-8
L
W
U
12/23
-7
L
P
U
12/30
-2
L
W
O
09/08
-14
L
L
U
09/12
6
W
W
U