NYGGiants
4-4
32
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
3 mph
18
TBBuccaneers
3-4
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
10
7
3
6
26
Buccaneers
6
3
3
6
18
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
383
Total Plays
74
60
Yards / Play
4.4
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.23
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.13
Rushing Yards
114
136
Rush Attempts
34
23
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
56%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-9.99
-18.75
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
49
79
Penalty EPA
-4.58
-9.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-12
Home nfelo
1,384
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+83.4
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
+20.2
Market Regression
+21.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
26
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
29
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
9
EPA
EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
10
27
EPA / Rush
21
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
28
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
9
5
Turnover EPA / Game
14
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
8
27
RZ Efficiency
29
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
30
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
24
13
Rushing Yards / Game
4
24
EPA
EPA / Play
20
31
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
13
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
28
Interceptions / Game
20
10
Fumbles / Game
21
9
Turnover EPA / Game
9
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
11
22
RZ Efficiency
23
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U