NYGGiants
5-7
14
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
53°F
8 mph
37
LACChargers
5-7
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
53°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
0
7
7
14
Chargers
7
17
7
6
37
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
388
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
6.2
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.24
Passing Yards
241
244
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.53
Rushing Yards
92
144
Rush Attempts
20
40
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
8
15
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.38
-5.31
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-5
Sack EPA
-4.51
-6.42
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
72
30
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-3.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+47.6
Home QB Adjustment
+25.6
Away QB Adjustment
-22.0
Market Regression
+39.9
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-22.0
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
9
Yards / Game
29
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14
EPA
EPA / Play
32
30
EPA / Pass
28
22
EPA / Rush
32
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
32
24
Fumbles / Game
31
19
Turnover EPA / Game
1
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
21
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
30
24
Chargers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
17
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
2
2
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12
EPA
EPA / Play
2
7
EPA / Pass
2
8
EPA / Rush
10
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
20
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
7
5
Turnover EPA / Game
27
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
3
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U