NYGGiants
3-0
27
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
59°F
10 mph
16
KCChiefs
0-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
59°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
10
3
7
27
Chiefs
3
0
0
13
16
Spread
-9
Total
PUSH
43
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
429
193
Total Plays
71
63
Yards / Play
6.0
3.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.12
Passing Yards
273
88
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
15/32(47%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
2.8
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.24
Rushing Yards
156
105
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.61
-5.42
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-19
-39
Sack EPA
-6.50
-4.81
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
54
55
Penalty EPA
-8.21
-4.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-186
Home nfelo
1,345
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+23.8
Home QB Adjustment
+38.0
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
-2.5
Final Difference
-222.9
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+38.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
29
Yards / Game
9
30
Passing Yards / Game
6
8
Rushing Yards / Game
17
30
EPA
EPA / Play
8
25
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
16
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
5
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
30
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
14
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
20
22
Chiefs Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
30
Yards / Game
25
13
Passing Yards / Game
20
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
13
EPA
EPA / Play
26
30
EPA / Pass
26
23
EPA / Rush
26
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
18
22
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
18
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
16
4th Down Efficiency
17
27
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Chiefs
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
2-1-7
O/U