NYGGiants
0-3
7
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
66°F
031
KCChiefs
3-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
66°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
7
0
0
7
Chiefs
0
10
1
14
25
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
390
Total Plays
61
70
Yards / Play
4.9
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.37
+0.02
Passing Yards
200
288
Comp/Att
18/37(49%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.15
Rushing Yards
98
102
Rush Attempts
21
28
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
7%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
1
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-8.15
-11.70
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-5.83
-0.51
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
65
62
Penalty EPA
-9.02
-6.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+35.2
Home QB Adjustment
+19.1
Away QB Adjustment
-16.1
Market Regression
+5.2
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
29
25
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
29
22
EPA
EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
28
9
EPA / Rush
32
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
19
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
31
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
20
RZ Efficiency
30
17
Chiefs Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
17
Yards / Game
12
8
Passing Yards / Game
23
2
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12
EPA
EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
7
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
20
Interceptions / Game
1
12
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
32
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
6
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
1-8-1
O/U