NYGGiants
1-0
14
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
038
INDColts
0-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
0
7
7
14
Colts
7
17
1
7
32
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
257
410
Total Plays
53
70
Yards / Play
4.8
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.15
Passing Yards
137
250
Comp/Att
13/24(54%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
9.6
EPA / Pass
-0.48
+0.64
Rushing Yards
120
160
Rush Attempts
25
43
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
27%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-14.32
-4.01
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-24
-5
Sack EPA
-14.34
-1.08
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
25
55
Penalty EPA
-4.10
-5.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+123
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.3
Home QB Adjustment
+23.5
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
-25.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+23.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
23
Yards / Game
4
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
15
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
21
29
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
27
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
31
30
Fumbles / Game
31
21
Turnover EPA / Game
1
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
32
12
RZ Efficiency
11
16
Colts Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
17
Yards / Game
6
7
Passing Yards / Game
8
13
Rushing Yards / Game
29
8
EPA
EPA / Play
3
3
EPA / Pass
4
3
EPA / Rush
13
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
31
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
7
1
Turnover EPA / Game
21
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
1
4th Down Efficiency
7
21
RZ Efficiency
1
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U