NYGGiants
0-1
18
TBD
FedExField
82°F
11 mph
21
WASCommanders
0-1
TBD
FedExField
82°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
6
6
0
6
18
Commanders
3
6
6
6
21
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
425
Total Plays
53
69
Yards / Play
5.7
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.17
Passing Yards
175
210
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
23/29(79%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.16
Rushing Yards
129
215
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
5.9
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.97
--
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-3
-16
Sack EPA
-1.01
-5.90
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
20
69
Penalty EPA
-5.67
-8.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,386
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
+41.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+30.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
-18.2
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-18.2
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
30
17
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
29
EPA / Pass
31
20
EPA / Rush
24
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
19
24
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
6
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
29
RZ Efficiency
32
27
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
20
Yards / Game
5
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
2
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
10
Interceptions / Game
8
31
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
16
RZ Efficiency
6
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U