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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ commanders week 2, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
0-1
18
TBD
FedExField
82°F
11 mph
21
WASCommanders
0-1
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
82°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
6
6
0
6
18
Commanders
3
6
6
6
21

Spread

WAS logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
304
425
Total Plays
53
69
Yards / Play
5.7
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.17
Passing Yards
175
210
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
23/29(79%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.16
Rushing Yards
129
215
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
5.9
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.97
--
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-3
-16
Sack EPA
-1.01
-5.90
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
20
69
Penalty EPA
-5.67
-8.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,389
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+41.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+30.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
-18.2
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-18.2
Value
Ptile
01/01
13.4
99
01/15
5.8
88
01/21
-7.7
7
09/10
-13.3
1
09/17
6.8
90
09/21
-4.1
24
10/02
-8.6
6
10/08
-7.8
9
11/05
-8.9
5
09/08
-12.2
0
J. Daniels headshot

J. Daniels

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Value
Ptile
09/08
5.9
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
30
17
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31

EPA

EPA / Play
29
29
EPA / Pass
31
20
EPA / Rush
24
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
19
24
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
6
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
29
RZ Efficiency
32
27
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
6
20
Yards / Game
5
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26

EPA

EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
2
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
10
Interceptions / Game
8
31
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
16
RZ Efficiency
6
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
-24
L
L
U
11/12
-32
L
L
O
11/19
12
W
W
O
11/26
3
W
W
U
12/11
2
W
W
O
12/17
-18
L
L
U
12/25
-8
L
W
O
12/31
-1
L
W
O
01/07
17
W
W
U
09/08
-22
L
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
3
W
W
U
11/12
-3
L
W
O
11/19
-12
L
L
O
11/23
-35
L
L
O
12/03
-30
L
L
O
12/17
-8
L
L
U
12/24
-2
L
W
O
12/31
-17
L
L
U
01/07
-28
L
L
O
09/08
-17
L
L
O