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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ commanders week 4, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
1-2
45
TBD
FedExField
64°F
4 mph
14
WASCommanders
1-2
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
64°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
17
7
14
45
Commanders
0
7
7
0
14

Spread

NYG logo
+3

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
449
329
Total Plays
78
52
Yards / Play
5.8
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.31
Passing Yards
295
243
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.57
Rushing Yards
154
86
Rush Attempts
38
17
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
31
17
Passing 1st downs
19
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
69%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
11
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
6
1
Red Zone Attempts
8
1
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
6
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.75
-26.77
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-14
Sack EPA
-0.66
-5.83
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
66
88
Penalty EPA
-7.11
-8.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.8
Home QB Adjustment
-37.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
-44.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Value
Ptile
11/17
-1.2
44
11/24
-3.0
31
12/01
-1.5
42
12/08
-3.6
27
12/15
-12.8
1
12/22
-3.0
32
12/29
-5.7
16
09/08
-6.5
13
09/14
0.6
53
09/21
3.7
75
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-37.2
Value
Ptile
12/16
5.9
86
12/15
3.9
77
12/22
-2.6
35
12/29
-12.9
1
09/21
8.4
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
11
19
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12

EPA

EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
26
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
2
Interceptions / Game
15
28
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
31
24
RZ Efficiency
8
15
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
9
31
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30

EPA

EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
25
16
EPA / Rush
18
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
32
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
27
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
14
W
W
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
-23
L
L
O
12/15
-23
L
L
U
12/22
3
W
W
U
12/29
14
W
W
U
09/08
-21
L
L
O
09/14
-11
L
L
U
09/21
13
W
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-8
L
L
U
11/25
-21
L
L
U
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
-35
L
L
O
12/15
-1
L
W
O
12/22
-1
L
W
U
12/29
-14
L
L
U
09/07
-11
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
09/21
-3
L
W
O