NYGGiants
1-2
45
TBD
FedExField
64°F
4 mph
14
WASCommanders
1-2
TBD
FedExField
64°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
17
7
14
45
Commanders
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
329
Total Plays
78
52
Yards / Play
5.8
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.31
Passing Yards
295
243
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.57
Rushing Yards
154
86
Rush Attempts
38
17
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
17
Passing 1st downs
19
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
69%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
11
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
6
1
Red Zone Attempts
8
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
6
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.75
-26.77
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-14
Sack EPA
-0.66
-5.83
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
66
88
Penalty EPA
-7.11
-8.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.8
Home QB Adjustment
-37.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
-45.3
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-37.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
11
19
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12
EPA
EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
26
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
2
Interceptions / Game
15
28
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
31
24
RZ Efficiency
8
15
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
9
31
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30
EPA
EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
25
16
EPA / Rush
18
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
23
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
32
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U