NYGGiants
4-7
24
TBD
FedExField
43°F
017
WASCommanders
3-8
TBD
FedExField
43°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
14
0
10
24
Commanders
7
7
3
0
17
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
286
323
Total Plays
54
68
Yards / Play
5.3
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.10
Passing Yards
206
184
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.15
Rushing Yards
80
139
Rush Attempts
23
31
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.62
-1.84
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-29
-23
Sack EPA
-5.07
-7.50
Penalties
1
8
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-8.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model48.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.5
Home QB Adjustment
-15.9
Away QB Adjustment
-24.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
13.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-24.4
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
30
Yards / Game
29
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
26
Rushing Yards / Game
29
17
EPA
EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
32
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
14
Interceptions / Game
32
14
Fumbles / Game
31
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
30
29
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
12
EPA
EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
11
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
20
12
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
18
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U