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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ commanders week 13, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NYG logo
NYGGiants
4-7
24
TBD
FedExField
43°F
0
17
WASCommanders
3-8
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
43°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
14
0
10
24
Commanders
7
7
3
0
17

Spread

NYG logo
-1

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
286
323
Total Plays
54
68
Yards / Play
5.3
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.10
Passing Yards
206
184
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.15
Rushing Yards
80
139
Rush Attempts
23
31
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.62
-1.84
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-29
-23
Sack EPA
-5.07
-7.50
Penalties
1
8
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-8.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model48.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.5
Home QB Adjustment
-15.9
Away QB Adjustment
-24.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
11.7
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-24.4
Value
Ptile
09/15
-2.9
33
09/22
-12.2
1
09/29
-4.4
22
10/06
-5.4
18
10/10
-5.6
16
10/21
-2.3
37
10/27
-0.5
46
11/10
-7.9
8
11/17
-1.2
44
11/24
-3.0
31
R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
Value
Ptile
09/15
4.4
81
09/22
2.0
64
09/29
-0.1
49
10/13
-3.1
31
10/20
7.6
91
10/27
-9.4
4
11/03
1.8
63
11/07
4.1
78
11/17
-2.2
37
11/25
-8.6
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
28
30
Yards / Game
29
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
26
Rushing Yards / Game
29
17

EPA

EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
32
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
14
Interceptions / Game
32
14
Fumbles / Game
31
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
30
29
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
12

EPA

EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
11
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
20
12
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
18
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-18
L
L
O
09/22
-38
L
L
U
09/29
-24
L
L
U
10/06
-15
L
L
O
10/10
-6
L
W
O
10/21
16
W
W
U
10/27
8
W
W
U
11/10
4
W
L
O
11/17
14
W
W
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-18
L
L
O
09/22
-7
L
L
U
09/29
10
W
W
U
10/13
-15
L
L
U
10/20
4
W
W
O
10/27
-24
L
L
O
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/07
-7
L
L
O
11/17
-8
L
L
U
11/25
-21
L
L
U