NYGGiants
7-6
45
TBD
FedExField
38°F
12 mph
12
WASCommanders
4-9
TBD
FedExField
38°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
17
8
7
39
Commanders
0
0
12
0
12
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
302
Total Plays
62
56
Yards / Play
6.2
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.41
-0.20
Passing Yards
273
213
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.85
-0.40
Rushing Yards
114
89
Rush Attempts
30
18
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
15
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
73%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
11
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-13.06
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-22
-36
Sack EPA
-0.18
-7.64
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
15
52
Penalty EPA
-2.56
-4.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.0
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+20.0
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
17
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
15
EPA
EPA / Play
8
20
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
16
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
5
Interceptions / Game
10
26
Fumbles / Game
30
16
Turnover EPA / Game
12
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
9
1
RZ Efficiency
20
1
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
30
Yards / Game
22
13
Passing Yards / Game
14
13
Rushing Yards / Game
28
13
EPA
EPA / Play
21
30
EPA / Pass
18
23
EPA / Rush
23
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
20
Interceptions / Game
16
22
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
24
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
16
4th Down Efficiency
30
27
RZ Efficiency
8
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U