NYGGiants
3-11
41
TBD
FedExField
44°F
6 mph
35
WASCommanders
3-11
TBD
FedExField
44°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Giants
14
14
7
0
6
41
Commanders
7
7
7
14
0
35
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
552
361
Total Plays
69
67
Yards / Play
8.0
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.36
+0.24
Passing Yards
346
281
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.60
+0.37
Rushing Yards
206
80
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
7.9
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
25
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
57%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-21
Sack EPA
+0.94
-4.92
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
33
51
Penalty EPA
-6.50
-4.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-4
Home nfelo
1,332
Away nfelo
1,364
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+46.5
Divisional Adj
-20.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.3
Home QB Adjustment
-24.5
Away QB Adjustment
-10.2
Market Regression
-40.8
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
D. Haskins
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-24.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
27
Yards / Game
23
27
Passing Yards / Game
16
23
Rushing Yards / Game
19
31
EPA
EPA / Play
26
29
EPA / Pass
27
27
EPA / Rush
11
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
6
Interceptions / Game
25
13
Fumbles / Game
32
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
18
30
RZ Efficiency
17
25
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
30
Yards / Game
31
26
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
20
EPA
EPA / Play
30
24
EPA / Pass
32
28
EPA / Rush
24
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
19
25
Fumbles / Game
10
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
20
4th Down Efficiency
21
24
RZ Efficiency
27
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U