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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ cowboys week 7, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
3-3
21
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
31
DALCowboys
5-1
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
14
0
7
21
Cowboys
7
7
7
10
31

Spread

DAL logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
352
423
Total Plays
59
60
Yards / Play
6.0
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.18
Passing Yards
--
267
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
11.6
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.80
Rushing Yards
104
156
Rush Attempts
26
35
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-5.95
-4.87
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-2.30
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
--
46
Penalty EPA
--
-8.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+11.4
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Value
Ptile
12/08
-3.6
27
12/15
-12.8
1
12/22
-3.0
32
12/29
-5.7
16
09/08
-6.5
13
09/14
0.6
53
09/21
3.7
75
09/25
9.4
95
10/05
0.5
52
10/12
-9.5
4
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Value
Ptile
11/28
0.5
53
12/09
-0.5
46
12/15
-0.2
48
12/22
-1.0
44
09/07
-4.8
22
09/14
-2.8
31
09/21
3.7
75
09/28
7.4
90
10/05
4.2
78
10/12
3.3
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Giants logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
13
15
Yards / Game
11
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8

EPA

EPA / Play
16
21
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
26
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
15
12
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
29
4th Down Efficiency
31
18
RZ Efficiency
8
25
Cowboys Offense vs Giants Defense
Cowboys logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
9
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
31
Rushing Yards / Game
2
30

EPA

EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
8
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
23
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
27
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
9
RZ Efficiency
3
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-23
L
L
O
12/15
-23
L
L
U
12/22
3
W
W
U
12/29
14
W
W
U
09/08
-21
L
L
O
09/14
-11
L
L
U
09/21
13
W
W
O
09/25
31
W
W
O
10/05
10
W
W
U
10/12
-27
L
L
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
-17
L
L
O
12/15
-1
L
L
O
12/22
1
W
L
U
12/29
-2
L
W
U
09/07
-11
L
L
U
09/14
16
W
W
U
09/21
3
W
W
O
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/05
3
W
L
U
10/12
7
W
W
O