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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ dolphins week 14, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
5-7
31
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
6 mph
24
MIADolphins
5-7
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
14
7
7
31
Dolphins
7
10
7
0
24

Spread

NYG logo
-2

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
429
363
Total Plays
62
64
Yards / Play
6.9
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.01
Passing Yards
--
235
Comp/Att
27/31(87%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.75
-0.10
Rushing Yards
92
128
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.36
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
45%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.12
-5.62
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-1
Sack EPA
--
-0.26
Penalties
3
12
Penalty Yards
25
123
Penalty EPA
-1.19
-14.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model47.7%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+2.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.9%
Cover Probability
51.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,418
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+82.2
Base HFA
+61.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
15.7
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Value
Ptile
09/24
5.5
85
10/04
0.9
56
10/11
13.0
100
10/19
-5.3
13
10/25
-6.2
10
11/01
10.7
98
11/08
-1.8
37
11/15
3.1
74
11/29
-6.8
8
12/06
-2.8
30
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Value
Ptile
09/27
-4.0
22
10/04
-7.6
5
10/18
1.5
62
10/25
6.4
88
10/29
-6.9
7
11/08
2.9
72
11/15
-2.3
34
11/22
-3.8
23
11/29
2.0
65
12/06
-4.5
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Giants logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
6
25
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
28

EPA

EPA / Play
7
22
EPA / Pass
10
31
EPA / Rush
21
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
7
Interceptions / Game
17
17
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
14
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
28
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Dolphins Offense vs Giants Defense
Dolphins logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
27
30
Yards / Game
27
32
Passing Yards / Game
8
13
Rushing Yards / Game
23
24

EPA

EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
20
25
EPA / Rush
17
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
23
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
32
4th Down Efficiency
28
22
RZ Efficiency
19
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
11
W
W
O
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/11
3
W
L
O
10/19
-20
L
L
U
10/25
7
W
W
O
11/01
-3
L
P
O
11/08
14
W
W
O
11/15
-1
L
W
O
11/29
-6
L
L
U
12/06
-3
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-27
L
L
O
10/04
-13
L
L
U
10/18
28
W
W
O
10/25
18
W
W
O
10/29
-29
L
L
U
11/08
-16
L
L
O
11/15
1
W
W
U
11/22
-10
L
L
U
11/29
-18
L
L
O
12/06
2
W
L
U