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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ eagles week 6, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
3-2
0
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
57°F
5 mph
27
PHIEagles
4-1
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
57°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
0
0
0
0
Eagles
10
10
7
0
27

Spread

PHI logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
254
448
Total Plays
60
71
Yards / Play
4.2
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.43
+0.04
Passing Yards
168
245
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.58
-0.00
Rushing Yards
86
203
Rush Attempts
24
36
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
14%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.95
-10.65
Sacks
8
1
Sack Yards
-43
-3
Sack EPA
-12.04
-0.33
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
75
25
Penalty EPA
-7.07
-2.60

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model55.2%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles-1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+15.5
Market Regression
-29.4
Final Difference
36.0
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
Value
Ptile
12/01
-1.5
42
12/08
-3.6
27
12/15
-12.8
1
12/22
-3.0
32
12/29
-5.7
16
09/08
-6.5
13
09/14
0.6
53
09/21
3.7
75
09/25
9.4
95
10/05
0.5
52
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Value
Ptile
12/08
0.5
53
12/15
6.1
87
12/22
5.9
86
12/29
-3.3
29
01/04
2.4
67
09/07
-1.7
38
09/15
2.7
70
09/21
9.3
95
09/28
-7.8
8
10/05
2.2
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Eagles Defense
Giants logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
13
22
Yards / Game
11
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
7
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15

EPA

EPA / Play
16
7
EPA / Pass
13
17
EPA / Rush
26
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
19
Interceptions / Game
15
22
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
4
RZ Efficiency
8
20
Eagles Offense vs Giants Defense
Eagles logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30

EPA

EPA / Play
14
20
EPA / Pass
15
16
EPA / Rush
21
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
23
Interceptions / Game
32
11
Fumbles / Game
31
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
4
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
24
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
-23
L
L
O
12/15
-23
L
L
U
12/22
3
W
W
U
12/29
14
W
W
U
09/08
-21
L
L
O
09/14
-11
L
L
U
09/21
13
W
W
O
09/25
31
W
W
O
10/05
10
W
W
U
PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
14
W
W
P
12/15
-18
L
L
O
12/22
43
W
W
O
12/29
2
W
L
U
01/04
-2
L
L
U
09/07
17
W
W
O
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/21
3
W
L
O
09/28
-5
L
L
U
10/05
6
W
W
O