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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ falcons week 7, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
1-5
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
23
ATLFalcons
2-4
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
3
3
14
20
Falcons
0
10
0
13
23

Spread

NYG logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
52

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
435
423
Total Plays
64
62
Yards / Play
6.8
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.18
Passing Yards
372
356
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
31/39(79%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.30
Rushing Yards
63
67
Rush Attempts
21
20
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
42%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
40%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
--
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.82
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-27
-23
Sack EPA
-5.80
-6.47
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
58
--
Penalty EPA
-5.87
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model71.5%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons-4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.9%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+200
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+58.2
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+21.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
+9.6
Final Difference
160.1
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Value
Ptile
12/10
-1.4
43
12/17
9.1
96
12/24
-4.4
22
12/31
-8.4
6
09/09
-3.3
26
09/16
-0.6
42
09/23
3.5
72
09/30
1.1
54
10/07
0.6
51
10/11
-6.4
11
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
Value
Ptile
12/24
-3.0
31
12/31
4.1
81
01/06
-0.3
49
01/13
-1.5
42
09/06
-7.6
9
09/16
10.3
96
09/23
10.2
96
09/30
8.6
93
10/07
-1.6
35
10/14
8.6
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Falcons Defense
Giants logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
16
28
Passing Yards / Game
8
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
25

EPA

EPA / Play
13
30
EPA / Pass
15
23
EPA / Rush
11
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
10
28
RZ Efficiency
29
27
Falcons Offense vs Giants Defense
Falcons logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
9
23
Yards / Game
6
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
18
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21

EPA

EPA / Play
5
28
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
24
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
3
7
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
19
32
RZ Efficiency
11
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
-20
L
L
U
12/17
-5
L
W
O
12/24
-23
L
L
U
12/31
8
W
W
U
09/09
-5
L
L
U
09/16
-7
L
L
U
09/23
5
W
W
O
09/30
-15
L
L
U
10/07
-2
L
W
O
10/11
-21
L
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-10
L
L
U
12/31
12
W
W
U
01/06
13
W
W
U
01/13
-5
L
L
U
09/06
-6
L
L
U
09/16
7
W
W
O
09/23
-6
L
L
O
09/30
-1
L
L
O
10/07
-24
L
L
O
10/14
5
W
W
O