NYGGiants
1-5
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
023
ATLFalcons
2-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
3
3
14
20
Falcons
0
10
0
13
23
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
435
423
Total Plays
64
62
Yards / Play
6.8
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.18
Passing Yards
372
356
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
31/39(79%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.30
Rushing Yards
63
67
Rush Attempts
21
20
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
42%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
40%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.82
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-27
-23
Sack EPA
-5.80
-6.47
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
58
--
Penalty EPA
-5.87
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model71.5%
Spread Pick
Falcons-4.5
Expected Value
+5.9%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+57.5
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+21.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
+9.6
Final Difference
159.8
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
25
Yards / Game
16
28
Passing Yards / Game
8
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
25
EPA
EPA / Play
13
30
EPA / Pass
15
23
EPA / Rush
11
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
10
28
RZ Efficiency
29
27
Falcons Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
23
Yards / Game
6
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
18
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21
EPA
EPA / Play
5
28
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
24
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
3
7
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
19
32
RZ Efficiency
11
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U