NYGGiants
3-8
24
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
71°F
5 mph
25
JAXJaguars
1-10
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
71°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
21
0
3
24
Jaguars
0
3
7
3
13
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
329
258
Total Plays
73
66
Yards / Play
4.5
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.19
Passing Yards
213
140
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.18
Rushing Yards
116
118
Rush Attempts
35
22
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
47%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-17.64
--
Sacks
4
7
Sack Yards
-34
-54
Sack EPA
-13.86
-10.11
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
40
49
Penalty EPA
-4.92
-4.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,272
Away nfelo
1,416
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.1
Home QB Adjustment
+16.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.2
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.2
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
26
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
12
29
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27
EPA
EPA / Play
16
22
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
26
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
15
30
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
23
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
8
9
Jaguars Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
22
Yards / Game
31
29
Passing Yards / Game
21
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30
EPA
EPA / Play
31
20
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
16
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
23
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
4
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
31
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U