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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ lions week 12, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NYG logo
NYGGiants
2-9
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
34
DETLions
6-4
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Giants
10
10
0
7
0
27
Lions
0
17
0
10
7
34

Spread

NYG logo
+14

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
517
494
Total Plays
77
65
Yards / Play
6.7
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.21
Passing Yards
395
257
Comp/Att
19/37(51%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.37
-0.16
Rushing Yards
122
237
Rush Attempts
39
20
Yards / Rush
3.1
11.8
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.78
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
25
23
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.90
-3.89
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-4
-22
Sack EPA
-2.09
-6.05
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
59
81
Penalty EPA
-6.43
-10.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+306
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
+44.2
Base HFA
+44.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.9
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-26.4
Market Regression
+65.1
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-26.4
Value
Ptile
09/18
-9.7
3
09/25
0.0
53
10/27
6.4
86
11/03
-9.9
3
11/17
5.7
82
11/21
1.3
58
12/02
4.7
79
12/08
-1.9
35
12/15
-12.7
0
11/16
-1.1
41
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
09/07
-1.8
38
09/14
13.3
99
09/22
2.2
66
09/28
-0.3
48
10/05
2.2
66
10/12
4.6
81
10/20
-4.5
21
11/02
0.1
52
11/09
8.5
95
11/16
-5.0
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Lions Defense
Giants logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
16
22
Yards / Game
13
17
Passing Yards / Game
8
23
Rushing Yards / Game
6
13

EPA

EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
18
14
EPA / Rush
5
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
15
Interceptions / Game
9
13
Fumbles / Game
12
23
Turnover EPA / Game
23
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
27
21
Lions Offense vs Giants Defense
Lions logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
4
26
Yards / Game
5
27
Passing Yards / Game
11
18
Rushing Yards / Game
13
31

EPA

EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
4
17
EPA / Rush
24
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
10
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
12
23
Turnover EPA / Game
28
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
8
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-3
L
W
O
09/21
-13
L
L
U
09/28
3
W
W
U
10/05
-12
L
L
U
10/09
17
W
W
O
10/19
-1
L
W
O
10/26
-18
L
L
O
11/02
-10
L
L
O
11/09
-4
L
W
U
11/16
-7
L
W
O
DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
-14
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
09/22
8
W
W
O
09/28
24
W
W
U
10/05
13
W
W
O
10/12
-13
L
L
U
10/20
15
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
O
11/09
22
W
W
O
11/16
-7
L
L
U