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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ lions week 16, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
5-9
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
20
DETLions
7-7
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Giants
3
10
0
1
3
17
Lions
0
3
7
8
0
18

Spread

NYG logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
279
357
Total Plays
65
81
Yards / Play
4.3
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.16
Passing Yards
238
209
Comp/Att
23/42(55%)
25/43(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.13
Rushing Yards
41
148
Rush Attempts
21
36
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.68
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
15
24
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
35%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
17
17
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.05
-15.07
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-15
Sack EPA
-1.41
-3.55
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
30
60
Penalty EPA
-4.61
-6.72

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model77.2%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants+9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.6
Home QB Adjustment
-13.4
Away QB Adjustment
-34.0
Market Regression
-2.7
Final Difference
212.3
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-34.0
Value
Ptile
10/06
-5.4
18
10/10
-5.6
16
10/21
-2.3
37
10/27
-0.5
46
11/10
-7.9
8
11/17
-1.2
44
11/24
-3.0
31
12/01
-1.5
42
12/08
-3.6
27
12/15
-12.8
1
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
Value
Ptile
10/06
-2.8
34
10/13
4.2
79
10/20
7.9
92
10/27
7.9
92
11/10
0.8
55
11/17
0.4
52
11/24
-4.4
23
11/28
3.6
74
12/08
-5.3
18
12/16
-4.9
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Lions Defense
Giants logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
29
16
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
29
6

EPA

EPA / Play
32
12
EPA / Pass
28
19
EPA / Rush
32
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
32
16
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
1
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
1
4th Down Efficiency
15
30
RZ Efficiency
30
1
Lions Offense vs Giants Defense
Lions logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
12
17
Yards / Game
5
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
2
Rushing Yards / Game
17
12

EPA

EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
25
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
20
Interceptions / Game
20
12
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
2
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
4
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-15
L
L
O
10/10
-6
L
W
O
10/21
16
W
W
U
10/27
8
W
W
U
11/10
4
W
L
O
11/17
14
W
W
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
-23
L
L
O
12/15
-23
L
L
U
DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-13
L
L
U
10/13
14
W
W
O
10/20
-3
L
L
O
10/27
1
W
L
O
11/10
2
W
W
U
11/17
-10
L
L
O
11/24
-3
L
L
U
11/28
30
W
W
O
12/08
-14
L
L
P
12/16
-2
L
L
U