NYGGiants
9-5
17
TBD
Lambeau Field
25°F
5 mph
45
GBPackers
8-6
TBD
Lambeau Field
25°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
14
3
0
17
Packers
14
7
10
14
45
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
515
Total Plays
55
74
Yards / Play
7.0
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.32
Passing Yards
296
396
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
10.7
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.59
Rushing Yards
90
119
Rush Attempts
21
35
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.43
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
11
19
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
6
1
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-19.45
-3.14
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-8
Sack EPA
-1.32
-3.40
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
45
31
Penalty EPA
-3.66
-2.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model61.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+126
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.6
Home QB Adjustment
+9.2
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
77.8
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
1
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
14
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12
EPA
EPA / Play
21
4
EPA / Pass
14
1
EPA / Rush
27
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
14
Interceptions / Game
31
1
Fumbles / Game
31
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
9
4th Down Efficiency
32
4
RZ Efficiency
11
14
Packers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
9
7
Passing Yards / Game
7
13
Rushing Yards / Game
24
8
EPA
EPA / Play
4
3
EPA / Pass
3
3
EPA / Rush
11
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
31
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
11
1
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
21
RZ Efficiency
4
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U