NYGGiants
11-5
13
TBD
Lambeau Field
14°F
7 mph
38
GBPackers
10-6
TBD
Lambeau Field
14°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
3
7
0
13
Packers
0
14
10
14
38
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
406
Total Plays
63
70
Yards / Play
5.8
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.15
Passing Yards
295
331
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.33
Rushing Yards
70
75
Rush Attempts
17
25
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.62
--
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-4
-31
Sack EPA
-5.83
-6.25
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
42
21
Penalty EPA
-4.82
-3.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model68.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+87.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+49.5
Home QB Adjustment
+36.3
Away QB Adjustment
-13.2
Market Regression
+1.7
Final Difference
133.3
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+36.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
25
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
29
Rushing Yards / Game
29
10
EPA
EPA / Play
28
31
EPA / Pass
24
28
EPA / Rush
29
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
11
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
23
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
19
27
Packers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
4
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
22
2
EPA
EPA / Play
3
7
EPA / Pass
3
6
EPA / Rush
8
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
7
8
Fumbles / Game
12
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
7
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U