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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ patriots week 6, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
2-3
14
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
13 mph
35
NEPatriots
5-0
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
8
0
0
8
Patriots
1
14
0
8
23

Spread

NE logo
-17

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
213
427
Total Plays
48
78
Yards / Play
4.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.70
-0.15
Passing Yards
161
313
Comp/Att
15/31(48%)
31/41(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.75
-0.06
Rushing Yards
52
114
Rush Attempts
16
34
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
10
27
Passing 1st downs
6
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-21.86
-14.76
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
-0.55
-11.63
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
40
20
Penalty EPA
+0.95
-2.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-17.0
Model
-17.5

Win Probability

Market90.9%
Model91.4%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-17.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+448
Home nfelo
1,723
Away nfelo
1,375
Home Field
+73.5
Base HFA
+54.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.7
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.6
Market Regression
+1.0
Final Difference
409.6
Model Spread
-17.5

Quarterbacks

D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-19.6
Value
Ptile
09/22
6.1
87
09/29
0.2
54
10/06
-5.8
16
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Value
Ptile
12/23
-6.0
13
12/30
6.4
87
01/13
8.3
92
01/20
1.6
58
02/03
-2.7
29
09/08
7.2
91
09/15
3.5
75
09/22
3.7
77
09/29
-6.4
14
10/06
5.7
85

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Patriots Defense
Giants logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
18
1
Yards / Game
23
1
Passing Yards / Game
16
4
Rushing Yards / Game
19
8

EPA

EPA / Play
26
1
EPA / Pass
27
1
EPA / Rush
11
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
29
Interceptions / Game
25
1
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
1
4th Down Efficiency
18
6
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Patriots Offense vs Giants Defense
Patriots logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
7
30
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
20
17
Rushing Yards / Game
18
20

EPA

EPA / Play
16
24
EPA / Pass
18
28
EPA / Rush
15
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
10
25
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
20
4th Down Efficiency
26
24
RZ Efficiency
26
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
24
W
W
O
12/16
-17
L
L
U
12/23
-1
L
W
O
12/30
-1
L
L
O
09/08
-18
L
L
O
09/15
-14
L
L
U
09/22
1
W
W
O
09/29
21
W
W
U
10/06
-18
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
12
W
L
U
12/30
35
W
W
U
01/13
13
W
W
O
01/20
6
W
W
O
02/03
10
W
W
U
09/08
30
W
W
U
09/15
43
W
W
U
09/22
16
W
L
O
09/29
6
W
L
U
10/06
26
W
W
U