NYGGiants
2-3
14
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
13 mph
35
NEPatriots
5-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
8
0
0
8
Patriots
1
14
0
8
23
Spread
-17
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
427
Total Plays
48
78
Yards / Play
4.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.70
-0.15
Passing Yards
161
313
Comp/Att
15/31(48%)
31/41(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.75
-0.06
Rushing Yards
52
114
Rush Attempts
16
34
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
27
Passing 1st downs
6
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-21.86
-14.76
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
-0.55
-11.63
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
40
20
Penalty EPA
+0.95
-2.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-17.0
Model
-17.5
Win Probability
Market90.9%
Model91.3%
Spread Pick
Patriots-17.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+443
Home nfelo
1,723
Away nfelo
1,378
Home Field
+72.7
Base HFA
+53.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.7
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.6
Market Regression
+2.5
Final Difference
408.7
Model Spread
-17.5
Quarterbacks
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-19.6
Value
Ptile
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
1
Yards / Game
23
1
Passing Yards / Game
16
4
Rushing Yards / Game
19
8
EPA
EPA / Play
26
1
EPA / Pass
27
1
EPA / Rush
11
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
29
Interceptions / Game
25
1
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
1
4th Down Efficiency
18
6
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Patriots Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
30
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
20
17
Rushing Yards / Game
18
20
EPA
EPA / Play
16
24
EPA / Pass
18
28
EPA / Rush
14
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
10
25
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
20
4th Down Efficiency
26
24
RZ Efficiency
26
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U