NYGGiants
5-2
24
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
9 mph
20
NEPatriots
5-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
0
10
14
24
Patriots
0
0
3
17
20
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
361
438
Total Plays
68
75
Yards / Play
5.3
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.04
Passing Yards
--
332
Comp/Att
20/39(51%)
28/49(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.01
Rushing Yards
111
106
Rush Attempts
29
24
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
29%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
+0.41
-6.76
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-5.22
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
50
81
Penalty EPA
+0.09
-9.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+228
Home nfelo
1,694
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.7
Home QB Adjustment
+12.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.6
Market Regression
+8.1
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
11
Yards / Game
8
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
28
Rushing Yards / Game
29
19
EPA
EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
26
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
26
Interceptions / Game
12
4
Fumbles / Game
16
25
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
9
18
Patriots Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
20
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
19
18
EPA
EPA / Play
1
24
EPA / Pass
3
26
EPA / Rush
4
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
23
Interceptions / Game
11
14
Fumbles / Game
11
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
2
20
RZ Efficiency
2
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U