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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ patriots week 13, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
2-10
15
TBD
Gillette Stadium
30°F
5 mph
33
NEPatriots
10-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
30°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
7
0
8
15
Patriots
11
13
0
3
27

Spread

NE logo
-7

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
241
395
Total Plays
54
63
Yards / Play
4.5
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.09
Passing Yards
130
276
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
24/31(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.37
Rushing Yards
111
119
Rush Attempts
27
29
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
4
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.65
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-6
Sack EPA
-2.51
-4.50
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-3.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+43.9
Base HFA
+43.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.8
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
-9.0
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Dart headshot

J. Dart

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
Value
Ptile
09/28
-1.6
38
10/05
1.2
60
10/09
4.4
80
10/19
0.7
56
10/26
-2.4
34
11/02
6.4
90
11/09
7.0
92
D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Value
Ptile
09/21
1.9
64
09/28
4.9
83
10/05
-0.9
43
10/12
5.6
87
10/19
5.8
88
10/26
2.9
72
11/02
-3.9
24
11/09
-1.1
41
11/13
3.3
74
11/23
0.5
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Patriots Defense
Giants logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
21
5
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
6
19
Rushing Yards / Game
6
8

EPA

EPA / Play
20
9
EPA / Pass
23
11
EPA / Rush
6
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
7
Interceptions / Game
11
19
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
28
32
Patriots Offense vs Giants Defense
Patriots logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
5
26
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30

EPA

EPA / Play
4
27
EPA / Pass
1
18
EPA / Rush
23
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
10
Interceptions / Game
7
24
Fumbles / Game
21
24
Turnover EPA / Game
21
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
16
4th Down Efficiency
1
30
RZ Efficiency
22
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-13
L
L
U
09/28
3
W
W
U
10/05
-12
L
L
U
10/09
17
W
W
O
10/19
-1
L
W
O
10/26
-18
L
L
O
11/02
-10
L
L
O
11/09
-4
L
W
U
11/16
-7
L
W
O
11/23
-7
L
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-7
L
L
U
09/28
29
W
W
O
10/05
3
W
W
U
10/12
6
W
W
U
10/19
18
W
W
O
10/26
19
W
W
O
11/02
1
W
L
O
11/09
5
W
W
O
11/13
13
W
W
U
11/23
6
W
L
U