NYGGiants
1-3
+2.0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0-2.0
NOSaints
0-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,354
Away nfelo
1,379
Home Field
+31.7
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+43.6
Home QB Adjustment
-5.4
Away QB Adjustment
-49.0
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Dart
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-49.0
Value
Ptile
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
30
Yards / Game
20
18
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
17
18
EPA
EPA / Play
20
27
EPA / Pass
27
29
EPA / Rush
24
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
13
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
1
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
1
RZ Efficiency
32
30
Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
23
Yards / Game
21
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
29
Rushing Yards / Game
10
29
EPA
EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
28
14
EPA / Rush
12
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
4
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
22
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
26
4th Down Efficiency
32
31
RZ Efficiency
21
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U