NYGGiants
1-3
14
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
026
NOSaints
0-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
7
0
0
14
Saints
3
13
3
1
20
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
335
332
Total Plays
70
62
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.06
Passing Yards
199
--
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.46
+0.29
Rushing Yards
136
88
Rush Attempts
29
30
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
30%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-28.18
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-3
--
Sack EPA
-6.03
--
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
95
43
Penalty EPA
-8.01
-5.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,354
Away nfelo
1,379
Home Field
+32.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+43.6
Home QB Adjustment
-5.4
Away QB Adjustment
-49.0
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Dart
Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-49.0
Value
Ptile
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
22
Yards / Game
15
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
21
EPA
EPA / Play
13
15
EPA / Pass
20
24
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
16
Interceptions / Game
14
23
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
27
21
Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
29
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
28
30
EPA
EPA / Play
30
29
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
30
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
7
Interceptions / Game
23
28
Fumbles / Game
24
28
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
18
4th Down Efficiency
32
25
RZ Efficiency
32
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U