NYGGiants
5-0
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
048
NOSaints
4-0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
3
14
0
10
27
Saints
14
20
7
7
48
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
493
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
5.7
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.37
Passing Yards
241
360
Comp/Att
18/36(50%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
12.0
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.89
Rushing Yards
84
133
Rush Attempts
19
39
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
11
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
30%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
67%
86%
Red Zone Conversions
2
6
Red Zone Attempts
3
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.64
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
-9
Sack EPA
-4.72
-0.92
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
110
55
Penalty EPA
-7.67
-8.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,643
Away nfelo
1,653
Home Field
+69.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.2
Home QB Adjustment
+10.1
Away QB Adjustment
+21.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
9
28
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
17
22
EPA
EPA / Play
8
11
EPA / Pass
8
7
EPA / Rush
16
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
30
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
30
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
15
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
20
3
Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
30
Yards / Game
1
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
13
Rushing Yards / Game
10
13
EPA
EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
7
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
20
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
28
12
Turnover EPA / Game
30
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
16
4th Down Efficiency
25
27
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-1-6
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
8-1-1
ATS
2-2-6
O/U