NYGGiants
4-3
49
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
052
NOSaints
3-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
14
7
15
43
Saints
14
14
14
10
52
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
608
Total Plays
65
76
Yards / Play
6.4
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.38
+0.31
Passing Yards
329
--
Comp/Att
30/41(73%)
39/50(78%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.53
+0.47
Rushing Yards
87
103
Rush Attempts
21
26
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
35
Passing 1st downs
16
24
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
7
1
3rd Down %
13%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.84
-12.36
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-4.77
--
Penalties
6
12
Penalty Yards
53
93
Penalty EPA
-6.45
-11.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+51.0
Base HFA
+62.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.1
Net QB Adjustment
-13.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.9
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
29
21
Rushing Yards / Game
18
31
EPA
EPA / Play
7
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
21
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
24
Interceptions / Game
17
26
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
31
RZ Efficiency
29
32
Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
3
13
Rushing Yards / Game
24
24
EPA
EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
5
25
EPA / Rush
14
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
28
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
6
9
Turnover EPA / Game
20
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
3
22
RZ Efficiency
9
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U