NYGGiants
6-4
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
049
NOSaints
7-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
3
7
14
24
Saints
0
21
14
14
49
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
465
577
Total Plays
70
69
Yards / Play
6.6
8.4
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.43
Passing Yards
392
--
Comp/Att
33/47(70%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.50
Rushing Yards
73
205
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.31
+0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
31
Passing 1st downs
19
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
13
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
45%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
67%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.69
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-2.25
--
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
32
104
Penalty EPA
-3.02
-7.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model75.1%
Spread Pick
Saints-7.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+225
Home nfelo
1,654
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.2
Home QB Adjustment
+16.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
+3.0
Final Difference
191.8
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
8
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
18
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11
EPA
EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
5
15
EPA / Rush
26
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
29
Interceptions / Game
12
27
Fumbles / Game
16
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
9
30
Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
1
22
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18
EPA
EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
2
26
EPA / Rush
5
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
23
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
12
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
16
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
6
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U