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  1. nfelo...
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  3. giants @ saints week 12, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
6-4
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
49
NOSaints
7-3
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
3
7
14
24
Saints
0
21
14
14
49

Spread

NO logo
-7

Total

OVER
51

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
465
577
Total Plays
70
69
Yards / Play
6.6
8.4
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.43
Passing Yards
392
--
Comp/Att
33/47(70%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.50
Rushing Yards
73
205
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.31
+0.33
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
29
31
Passing 1st downs
19
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
13
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
45%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
67%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.69
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-2.25
--
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
32
104
Penalty EPA
-3.02
-7.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model73.9%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,651
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.2
Home QB Adjustment
+16.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
+1.1
Final Difference
180.8
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Value
Ptile
09/11
-3.2
30
09/19
-2.3
34
09/25
5.0
81
10/02
6.3
87
10/09
0.9
59
10/16
2.5
70
10/30
6.7
89
11/06
0.4
55
11/13
2.2
67
11/20
-2.8
33
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Value
Ptile
09/08
9.7
96
09/18
7.4
92
09/25
4.8
80
10/02
0.7
57
10/09
6.0
86
10/16
3.0
73
10/23
12.3
98
10/30
-5.3
17
11/06
6.8
90
11/13
8.2
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Saints Defense
Giants logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
8
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
18
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11

EPA

EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
5
15
EPA / Rush
26
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
29
Interceptions / Game
12
27
Fumbles / Game
16
26
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
9
30
Saints Offense vs Giants Defense
Saints logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
1
22
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18

EPA

EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
2
26
EPA / Rush
5
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
23
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
12
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
16
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
6
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-14
L
L
O
09/19
12
W
W
O
09/25
13
W
W
U
10/02
4
W
W
O
10/09
-11
L
L
O
10/16
3
W
P
O
10/30
3
W
L
U
11/06
4
W
W
U
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/20
-7
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-8
L
L
O
09/18
17
W
W
U
09/25
7
W
W
O
10/02
13
W
W
U
10/09
3
W
L
O
10/16
-6
L
L
U
10/23
55
W
W
O
10/30
-10
L
L
O
11/06
11
W
W
U
11/13
3
W
W
U