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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ texans week 5, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
2-2
34
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
10
HOUTexans
3-1
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
14
10
3
7
34
Texans
0
3
7
0
10

Spread

NYG logo
+3

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
414
195
Total Plays
74
52
Yards / Play
5.6
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.42
Passing Yards
--
171
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
16/34(47%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.47
Rushing Yards
117
24
Rush Attempts
32
15
Yards / Rush
3.7
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
26
11
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
36%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.56
-10.45
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-9.24
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
84
67
Penalty EPA
-8.47
-6.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+100
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.7
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Value
Ptile
11/26
-3.5
28
12/06
-0.6
46
12/13
10.8
98
12/21
6.5
87
12/27
-0.9
44
01/03
-5.1
20
09/12
0.9
54
09/19
-4.1
24
09/26
2.3
64
10/03
-3.4
27
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Value
Ptile
11/29
3.1
70
12/06
-1.2
43
12/13
7.4
90
12/20
7.0
89
12/27
3.0
69
01/03
3.6
73
09/12
-6.1
12
09/19
8.7
95
09/26
-3.1
28
10/03
2.6
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Texans Defense
Giants logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
30
Rushing Yards / Game
6
14

EPA

EPA / Play
21
32
EPA / Pass
14
32
EPA / Rush
27
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
21
Interceptions / Game
31
23
Fumbles / Game
31
32
Turnover EPA / Game
1
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
20
4th Down Efficiency
32
32
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Texans Offense vs Giants Defense
Texans logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
11
17
Yards / Game
3
7
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8

EPA

EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
5
3
EPA / Rush
4
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
3
1
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
21
RZ Efficiency
5
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-20
L
L
U
12/06
7
W
W
O
12/13
-7
L
L
O
12/21
33
W
W
O
12/27
-32
L
L
O
01/03
-37
L
L
O
09/12
13
W
W
O
09/19
-24
L
L
O
09/26
-19
L
L
U
10/03
14
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-8
L
L
O
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
27
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
U
12/27
7
W
W
P
01/03
7
W
L
O
09/12
10
W
W
O
09/19
3
W
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
7
W
W
O