NYGGiants
2-2
34
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
010
HOUTexans
3-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
14
10
3
7
34
Texans
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
414
195
Total Plays
74
52
Yards / Play
5.6
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.42
Passing Yards
--
171
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
16/34(47%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.47
Rushing Yards
117
24
Rush Attempts
32
15
Yards / Rush
3.7
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
11
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
36%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.56
-10.45
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-9.24
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
84
67
Penalty EPA
-8.47
-6.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.7
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Giants Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
30
Rushing Yards / Game
6
14
EPA
EPA / Play
21
32
EPA / Pass
14
32
EPA / Rush
27
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
21
Interceptions / Game
31
23
Fumbles / Game
31
32
Turnover EPA / Game
1
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
20
4th Down Efficiency
32
32
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Texans Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
17
Yards / Game
3
7
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8
EPA
EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
5
3
EPA / Rush
4
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
3
1
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
21
RZ Efficiency
5
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Giants
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U