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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ vikings week 14, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
8-4
21
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
3
MINVikings
5-7
MIN logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
14
7
0
21
Vikings
3
0
0
0
3

Spread

NYG logo
-5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
395
164
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
6.0
2.7
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.31
Passing Yards
182
103
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
17/35(49%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
2.9
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.44
Rushing Yards
213
61
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
7.6
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
21
10
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
23%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.22
-4.09
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-5
-23
Sack EPA
-2.31
-6.26
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
55
71
Penalty EPA
-7.47
-5.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model59.5%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings+5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+15.2%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-17
Home nfelo
1,554
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+11.2
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-26.0
Home QB Adjustment
-17.8
Away QB Adjustment
+8.1
Market Regression
-0.8
Final Difference
-66.5
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Value
Ptile
09/26
2.3
64
10/03
-3.4
27
10/10
3.5
72
10/17
0.9
54
10/25
4.5
79
11/07
8.1
93
11/14
6.2
88
11/21
-1.4
41
11/28
2.1
62
12/05
-3.8
25
T. Jackson headshot

T. Jackson

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-17.8
Value
Ptile
12/09
1.0
58
12/17
-4.0
25
12/23
4.8
81
12/30
0.8
56
09/08
0.7
57
09/14
-3.5
25
12/14
1.7
63
12/21
6.4
88
12/28
-0.8
46
01/04
-3.7
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Vikings Defense
Giants logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
9
18
Yards / Game
4
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
6
Rushing Yards / Game
6
9

EPA

EPA / Play
21
9
EPA / Pass
14
10
EPA / Rush
27
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
15
Interceptions / Game
31
17
Fumbles / Game
31
22
Turnover EPA / Game
1
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
32
19
RZ Efficiency
11
23
Vikings Offense vs Giants Defense
Vikings logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
29
17
Yards / Game
23
7
Passing Yards / Game
12
13
Rushing Yards / Game
10
8

EPA

EPA / Play
27
3
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
14
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
31
Interceptions / Game
32
14
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
1
4th Down Efficiency
15
21
RZ Efficiency
30
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-19
L
L
U
10/03
14
W
W
U
10/10
24
W
W
U
10/17
8
W
L
O
10/25
6
W
W
O
11/07
34
W
W
O
11/14
-13
L
L
O
11/21
-10
L
L
U
11/28
4
W
L
O
12/05
24
W
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
14
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
O
10/24
-4
L
L
O
10/31
-10
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
L
O
11/14
-14
L
L
U
11/21
-28
L
L
U
11/28
4
W
W
U
12/05
24
W
W
O