JAXJaguars
6-4
3
TBD
Candlestick Park
68°F
020
SF49ers
4-6
TBD
Candlestick Park
68°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
0
0
3
49ers
3
14
3
0
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
357
284
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
5.9
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.04
Passing Yards
261
--
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.15
Rushing Yards
96
52
Rush Attempts
19
20
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
25%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.74
--
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-46
--
Sack EPA
-14.77
--
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-7.28
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model60.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+123
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-47.7
Home QB Adjustment
-44.8
Away QB Adjustment
+3.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
77.1
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-44.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
4
Yards / Game
18
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
9
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6
EPA
EPA / Play
16
2
EPA / Pass
20
5
EPA / Rush
1
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
12
Interceptions / Game
4
10
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
15
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
18
2
49ers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
27
22
Passing Yards / Game
18
1
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18
EPA
EPA / Play
23
32
EPA / Pass
21
32
EPA / Rush
20
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
7
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
6
20
Turnover EPA / Game
31
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
6-2-2
ATS
5-5
O/U