JAXJaguars
10-4
33
TBD
Levi's Stadium
52°F
044
SF49ers
4-10
TBD
Levi's Stadium
52°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
14
3
14
31
49ers
10
0
7
21
38
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
474
369
Total Plays
80
66
Yards / Play
5.9
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.15
Passing Yards
382
238
Comp/Att
32/51(63%)
21/30(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.38
Rushing Yards
92
131
Rush Attempts
28
35
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
32
26
Passing 1st downs
20
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
4
3rd Down %
38%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-18.37
-4.49
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-4
Sack EPA
-1.22
-1.99
Penalties
12
8
Penalty Yards
99
68
Penalty EPA
-9.86
-9.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-89
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+65.8
Base HFA
+55.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+24.6
Away QB Adjustment
+21.5
Market Regression
+17.9
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
9
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
4
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22
EPA
EPA / Play
9
25
EPA / Pass
10
26
EPA / Rush
6
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
9
25
Fumbles / Game
20
9
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
30
4th Down Efficiency
2
32
RZ Efficiency
1
26
49ers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
3
Yards / Game
12
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
6
Rushing Yards / Game
20
17
EPA
EPA / Play
16
1
EPA / Pass
17
1
EPA / Rush
9
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
23
2
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
4
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
28
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U