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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ 49ers week 16, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
10-4
33
TBD
Levi's Stadium
52°F
0
44
SF49ers
4-10
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
52°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
14
3
14
31
49ers
10
0
7
21
38

Spread

SF logo
+4

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
474
369
Total Plays
80
66
Yards / Play
5.9
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.15
Passing Yards
382
238
Comp/Att
32/51(63%)
21/30(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.38
Rushing Yards
92
131
Rush Attempts
28
35
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
32
26
Passing 1st downs
20
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
4
3rd Down %
38%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
7
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-18.37
-4.49
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-4
Sack EPA
-1.22
-1.99
Penalties
12
8
Penalty Yards
99
68
Penalty EPA
-9.86
-9.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-87
Home nfelo
1,405
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+66.7
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+24.6
Away QB Adjustment
+21.5
Market Regression
+17.9
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
Value
Ptile
10/08
-6.3
14
10/15
-3.2
30
10/22
3.9
80
11/05
4.6
83
11/12
-3.1
31
11/19
-4.2
24
11/26
1.1
60
12/03
7.9
93
12/10
4.2
81
12/17
7.2
91
J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+24.6
Value
Ptile
09/11
2.6
69
09/18
5.6
85
12/03
-0.4
49
12/10
-1.1
44
12/17
5.3
85

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs 49ers Defense
Jaguars logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
9
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
4
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22

EPA

EPA / Play
9
25
EPA / Pass
10
26
EPA / Rush
6
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
9
25
Fumbles / Game
20
9
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
30
4th Down Efficiency
2
32
RZ Efficiency
1
26
49ers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
49ers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
19
3
Yards / Game
12
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
6
Rushing Yards / Game
20
17

EPA

EPA / Play
16
1
EPA / Pass
17
1
EPA / Rush
9
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
23
2
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
4
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
28
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
21
W
W
U
10/15
-10
L
L
O
10/22
27
W
W
U
11/05
16
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
L
U
11/19
12
W
W
U
11/26
-3
L
L
O
12/03
20
W
W
U
12/10
6
W
W
O
12/17
38
W
W
O
SF logo

49ers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
10/15
-2
L
W
O
10/22
-30
L
L
O
10/29
-23
L
L
U
11/05
-10
L
L
U
11/12
10
W
W
O
11/26
-11
L
L
U
12/03
1
W
W
U
12/10
10
W
W
U
12/17
2
W
L
O