JAXJaguars
1-4
16
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
54°F
3 mph
35
CHIBears
3-2
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
54°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
7
6
16
Bears
0
14
7
14
35
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
278
373
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
4.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.35
Passing Yards
210
221
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
23/29(79%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.49
Rushing Yards
68
152
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
47%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.72
-4.00
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-30
-5
Sack EPA
-6.16
-2.93
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
43
--
Penalty EPA
-6.96
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-5
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
-8.2
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.8
Home QB Adjustment
-10.0
Away QB Adjustment
-4.2
Market Regression
-32.2
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
14
Yards / Game
25
27
Passing Yards / Game
26
29
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27
EPA
EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
16
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
1
Interceptions / Game
22
18
Fumbles / Game
17
3
Turnover EPA / Game
23
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
20
5
RZ Efficiency
13
3
Bears Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
27
Yards / Game
32
31
Passing Yards / Game
20
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
24
EPA
EPA / Play
27
31
EPA / Pass
26
32
EPA / Rush
20
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
25
Interceptions / Game
6
30
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
26
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
9
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
6-2-2
ATS
4-6
O/U