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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ bengals week 9, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
1-7
23
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
3 mph
33
CINBengals
4-2
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
7
13
23
Bengals
0
10
7
14
31

Spread

JAX logo
CIN logo
10
P

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
365
423
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
6.0
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.14
Passing Yards
233
232
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.11
Rushing Yards
132
191
Rush Attempts
25
34
Yards / Rush
5.3
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.98
-8.78
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-1
Sack EPA
-1.49
-2.04
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-3.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals-10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.9%
Cover Probability
54.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+333
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,276
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.0
Home QB Adjustment
+8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+27.9
Market Regression
-11.1
Final Difference
288.8
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.9
Value
Ptile
09/28
-0.7
45
10/05
-4.9
21
10/12
0.6
53
10/19
-6.5
12
10/26
-4.4
23
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Value
Ptile
12/22
9.2
94
12/29
0.8
55
01/05
-2.3
37
09/07
4.6
80
09/14
1.9
65
09/21
-2.4
33
10/05
3.1
72
10/12
5.6
84
10/19
-7.7
8
10/26
3.8
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
32
13
Yards / Game
31
23
Passing Yards / Game
21
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
20

EPA

EPA / Play
31
15
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
16
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
30
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
10
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
31
7
Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
16
26
Yards / Game
18
26
Passing Yards / Game
31
29
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27

EPA

EPA / Play
15
22
EPA / Pass
23
22
EPA / Rush
3
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
1
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
18
5
Turnover EPA / Game
10
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
10
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-4
L
P
U
12/29
-20
L
L
U
09/07
-17
L
L
O
09/14
-31
L
L
O
09/21
-27
L
L
O
09/28
-19
L
L
O
10/05
-8
L
L
U
10/12
-2
L
W
U
10/19
18
W
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

6-3-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
28
W
W
O
12/29
17
W
W
O
01/05
-17
L
L
U
09/07
7
W
W
U
09/14
14
W
W
U
09/21
26
W
W
U
10/05
-26
L
L
O
10/12
0
T
L
O
10/19
-27
L
L
U
10/26
3
W
W
O