JAXJaguars
1-7
23
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
3 mph
33
CINBengals
4-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
42°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
7
13
23
Bengals
0
10
7
14
31
Spread
10
P
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
423
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
6.0
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.14
Passing Yards
233
232
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.11
Rushing Yards
132
191
Rush Attempts
25
34
Yards / Rush
5.3
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.98
-8.78
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-1
Sack EPA
-1.49
-2.04
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-3.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model84.2%
Spread Pick
Bengals-10.0
Expected Value
+9.9%
Cover Probability
54.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+336
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,273
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.0
Home QB Adjustment
+8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+27.9
Market Regression
-9.4
Final Difference
290.6
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.9
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
13
Yards / Game
31
23
Passing Yards / Game
21
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
20
EPA
EPA / Play
31
15
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
16
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
30
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
10
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
31
7
Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
26
Yards / Game
18
26
Passing Yards / Game
31
29
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
15
22
EPA / Pass
23
22
EPA / Rush
3
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
1
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
18
5
Turnover EPA / Game
10
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
10
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
6-3-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U