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  1. nfelo...
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  3. jaguars @ bills week 5, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-2
36
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
10 mph
26
BUFBills
0-4
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
10
14
9
36
Bills
10
3
7
6
26

Spread

JAX logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
382
306
Total Plays
61
55
Yards / Play
6.3
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.34
+0.09
Passing Yards
165
196
Comp/Att
16/20(80%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.01
Rushing Yards
217
110
Rush Attempts
39
21
Yards / Rush
5.6
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.81
+5.31
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-24
Sack EPA
-3.41
-5.00
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
38
--
Penalty EPA
-3.82
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.5
Market Regression
-0.4
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Value
Ptile
11/29
-1.2
43
12/06
-1.1
43
12/13
-5.3
18
12/17
1.1
56
12/27
-1.3
41
01/03
0.0
49
09/12
5.0
82
09/19
-7.8
7
09/26
-12.1
2
10/03
8.9
95
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
Value
Ptile
10/25
-3.5
27
11/01
-7.1
11
11/22
-2.4
35
11/29
1.1
56
12/03
-6.7
12
12/13
-5.4
18
12/20
-3.7
25
01/03
4.6
80
09/26
2.2
63
10/03
1.7
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Jaguars logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
17
28
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
19
8
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32

EPA

EPA / Play
9
27
EPA / Pass
21
28
EPA / Rush
3
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
27
28
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
31
4th Down Efficiency
6
29
RZ Efficiency
2
27
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bills logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
28
26
Yards / Game
25
27
Passing Yards / Game
9
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22

EPA

EPA / Play
29
30
EPA / Pass
28
31
EPA / Rush
23
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
31
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
21
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-17
L
L
U
12/06
5
W
W
U
12/13
-4
L
L
U
12/17
-4
L
L
O
12/27
-28
L
L
U
01/03
-6
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
-25
L
L
O
09/26
-25
L
L
U
10/03
3
W
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
17
W
W
O
12/03
-6
L
L
U
12/13
6
W
W
U
12/20
-7
L
L
U
12/27
-28
L
L
U
01/03
23
W
W
O
09/12
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-27
L
L
U
09/26
-8
L
W
O
10/03
-24
L
L
O