JAXJaguars
2-2
36
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
10 mph
26
BUFBills
0-4
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
10
14
9
36
Bills
10
3
7
6
26
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
306
Total Plays
61
55
Yards / Play
6.3
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.34
+0.09
Passing Yards
165
196
Comp/Att
16/20(80%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.01
Rushing Yards
217
110
Rush Attempts
39
21
Yards / Rush
5.6
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.81
+5.31
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-24
Sack EPA
-3.41
-5.00
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
38
--
Penalty EPA
-3.82
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.5
Market Regression
+5.2
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
28
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
19
8
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32
EPA
EPA / Play
9
27
EPA / Pass
21
28
EPA / Rush
3
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
27
28
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
31
4th Down Efficiency
6
29
RZ Efficiency
2
27
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
26
Yards / Game
25
27
Passing Yards / Game
9
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22
EPA
EPA / Play
29
30
EPA / Pass
28
31
EPA / Rush
23
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
31
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
21
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U